DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 01Z THU 05/12 - 06Z FRI 06/12 2002
ISSUED: 05/12 00:54Z
FORECASTER: HAVEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF MEDITERRANEAN SEA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS BAY OF BISCAY AND SWRN FRANCE

SYNOPSIS

UPPER LOW WITH CENTRE JUST SOUTH OF CNTRL ITALY WILL MERGE WITH OTHER FORMING UPPER LOW, NOW OVER CNTRL FRANCE, RESULTING INTO ONE LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE, COVERING MOST OF THE MEDITERRANEAN ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE FROM UKRAINE TO SOUTHERN SCANDINAVIA IS BUILDING AND MAKING CONTACT WITH BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS A RESULT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SCANDINAVIA IS BUILDING AND SFC LOW NEAR ITALY REMAINS STATIONARY, CAUSING AN INCREASING E-LY FLOW OF DRY, COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF CONTINENTAL EUROPE.

DISCUSSION

...BAY OF BISCAY AND SWRN MEDITERRANEAN SEA...
VORT MAX ON SW-FLANK OF FORMING UPPER LOW OVER FRANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS SWRN MEDITERRANEAN SEA AND CREATE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW TSTMS. MARGINAL TO LOW INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT OVER LARGE PARTS OF THE WRN MEDITERRANEAN SEA. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CREATE BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. A FEW WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK.

...EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA...AEGEAN SEA......
SHORTWAVE S-SW OF GREECE CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY IN 00Z WV IMAGERY AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE AEGEAN SEA. S-LY SFC WINDS HAS PICKED UP ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEAT TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH A FEW HUNDREDS J/KG OF CAPE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS. PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN LOW...AND LIKELY LIMITED TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.

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